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February 12, 2021
We've rounded up some of the most anticipated IPOs — as well as IPOs that already happened — to help get you up to speed on each company's financials, plans and risk factors.
Everything you need to know about upcoming IPOs
Roblox
Roblox originally expected to go public via direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange in February. In late January, however, Reuters reported that Roblox had to delay its IPO due to SEC scrutiny over how it recognizes revenue. But on Feb. 22, the company announced that it's finally pulling the trigger on its listing on March 10.
Squarespace
Squarespace filed confidentially on Jan. 27, but didn't specify if it would go public through IPO or direct listing. The company was last valued at $1.7 billion in December 2017.
Coinbase
Coinbase was founded in 2012 and announced in December 2020 that it filed confidentially to go public. The cryptocurrency exchange filed its S-1 on Feb. 25 to go public via direct listing on Nasdaq. And depending on who you ask, the Coinbase IPO could be the latest symptom of a major financial bubble or a significant milestone in the restructuring of the global financial system.
Ant
The eagerly-anticipated listing was set to be the world's biggest IPO, raising almost $37 billion at a $313 billion valuation. The deal was then put on ice by regulators.
Instacart
Will Instacart IPO in 2021? It's looking pretty likely. In January the company tapped Goldman Sachs' lead internet banker, Nick Giovanni, as CFO.
ZipRecruiter
In December 2020, Reuters reported that ZipRecruiter, the buzzy employment platform, hired Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase to help prepare for the company's IPO. Sources said that ZipRecruiter is looking for a valuation from $3 billion to $5 billion.
Coursera
Also in December 2020, Coursera — the online learning platform — was said to be eyeing an IPO, according to Bloomberg sources. The company is hoping to be valued at around $5 billion when it goes public sometime this year.
Coupang
Coupang hasn't yet disclosed its target listing date or share price. But it's expected to be the largest U.S. IPO by a foreign company since Alibaba went public in 2014.
Jingdong Logistics
JDL's anticipated $5 billion IPO in Hong Kong could value ecommerce giant JD.com's logistics arm at $40 billion, according to Bloomberg. JDL doesn't make a profit, but the trend lines are good.
Everything you need to know about past IPOs
Bumble
They say money can't buy you love, but it can buy five SuperSwipes. And on Feb. 11, money could also get you an ownership stake in Bumble. Bumble's stock price jumped more than 85% within a few hours of its Nasdaq debut, raising $2.15 billion through the IPO process.
Kuaishou
Kuaishou managed to raise $5.4 billion in the lead-up to the Hong Kong stock exchange debut — no internet company besides Uber has ever raised more through an IPO. Shares tripled during its Feb. 5 debut.
Airbnb
There aren't many tech companies harder hit by COVID-19 than Airbnb. When the pandemic took hold, the company's business was undermined and its plan to go public this year looked totally shot.
The company's share price more than doubled in its trading debut, from the $68 price set the night before to $146 at opening.
Wish
Wish priced its share at the high end of its range at $24, raising $1.1 billion for the company in its IPO and bumping its valuation up from $11 billion to $17 billion.
Interview with Poshmark co-founder Tracy Sun
The company's stock price more than doubled within a few minutes of its Nasdaq debut mid-January, rising from $42 to $103. Protocol spoke with co-founder Tracy Sun about the importance of social commerce, why users are spending so much time on the app, and how the company is investing for long-term growth.
Affirm
Affirm was one of the most highly anticipated debuts of the year and it didn't disappoint, soaring on the Nasdaq on its first day of trading. In an interview with the company's CEO, Max Levchin told Protocol that the the level of effort and intensity that our team brought to bear made him feel like he just wasn't working hard enough.
Qualtrics IPO debut
Shares of the company, which provides customer sentiment monitoring, ended the day of its debut up 51%, giving it above a $24 billion valuation, higher than Wall Street initially expected.
Snowflake IPO debut
After raising $3.4 billion in the largest IPO ever pulled off by a software company, Snowflake has an impressive foundation to continue building out its data warehousing services for a data-mad world.
Sumo Logic IPO debut
Sumo Logic wants to be the alarm system for the cloud, and raised $326 million to further its monitoring efforts in its public debut.
JFrog IPO debut
JFrog closed its first day of trading at $64.79, valuing the 12-year-old software development tool company at more than $6 billion.
C3.ai IPO debut
Shares of C3.ai went gangbusters on the company's first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange, raising $51 million.
DoorDash
After confidentially filing for an IPO back in February 2020, market turmoil caused by the pandemic put a halt to its listing. Also, DoorDash's risk factors section is long — really, really long. It priced its shares at $102 apiece the day before trading opened, but the stock began trading at $182, a giant pop for the company. It ended up closing at $189, up 85% for the day.
Unity
Back in August 2020, Protocol took a deep dive in game-engine maker Unity's S-1, parsing out everything that could possibly go wrong with the IPO. Among the threats: Unity is beholden to Apple and Google, saying the two companies could "limit or discontinue our or our customers' access" to their platforms and app stores. A stark reminder that unless you're one of the Big Five, you're at the mercy of Big Tech. Just a month later, the company IPO'd; it raised $1.3 billion in an unusual IPO, where Unity "asked investors to give us their interest at different prices in different quantities specifically," the company's CFO Kim Jabal told Protocol at the time.
Palantir
Peter Thiel's secretive data analytics/government contracting company never made a profit, but just ahead of its planned direct listing, the company unveiled a ton of financial data, showing just what makes it tick. Unfortunately for Palantir, investors weren't too secretive about how they felt about the company: Though its stock opened at $10 per share, it spent the day slipping, closing down more than 5% at $9.50, marking the end of a pretty tumultuous listing process.
This story will be continually updated.
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Protocol Team
A new media company from the publisher of POLITICO reporting on the people, power and politics of tech.
People
Making the economy work for Black entrepreneurs
Funding for Black-owned startups needs to grow. That's just the start.
"There is no quick fix to close the racial wealth and opportunity gaps, but there are many ways companies can help," said Mastercard's Michael Froman.
Photo: DigitalVision/Getty Images
February 26, 2021
Michael Froman serves as vice chairman and president, Strategic Growth for Mastercard. He and his team drive inclusive growth efforts and partner across public and private sectors to address major societal and economic issues. From 2013 to 2017, Mike served as the U.S. trade representative, President Barack Obama’s principal adviser and negotiator on international trade and investment issues. He is a distinguished fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the board of directors of The Walt Disney Company.
February 26, 2021
Michael Froman is the vice chairman and president of Strategic Growth for Mastercard.
When Tanya Van Court's daughter shared her 9th birthday wish list — a bike and an investment account — Tanya had a moment of inspiration. She wondered whether helping more kids get excited about saving for goals and learning simple financial principles could help them build a pathway to financial security. With a goal of reaching every kid in America, she founded Goalsetter, a savings and financial literacy app for kids. Last month, Tanya brought in backers including NBA stars Kevin Durant and Chris Paul, raising $3.9 million in seed funding.
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Reaching this milestone is a testament to Tanya's perseverance and resilience as she, like many other Black women founders, struggle to find institutional investors. Our financial system is simply not set up to help Black entrepreneurs launch a business. Most new businesses are initially funded from savings and home equity, but the persistent racial wealth gap in our country places Black would-be entrepreneurs at a dramatic disadvantage since many don't have those assets available. On top of that, of the approximately $625 billion in venture capital invested since 2015, only around $15 billion went to Black and Latinx founders; that's just 2.4% of funding. For Black women founders specifically, the numbers plunge to 0.27% of funding over the past <a href="https://www.projectdiane.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">two years</a>.
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This is not an issue that will resolve itself; we need to be deliberate about opening doors and bringing down barriers, not just to solve for one Black or minority-owned business at a time, but to rebuild a system that gives everyone a chance. Capitalism has lifted millions of people out of poverty and improved their quality of life, but it has also left many behind. As we now rebuild our national economy, we need to ensure future growth is inclusive, and that small businesses — the backbone of our economy — recover in a way that lifts up promising Black-owned startups at every point in their journey.
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There is no quick fix to close the racial wealth and opportunity gaps, but there are many ways companies can help. Here are four insights we've learned from years of working with startups and community organizations.
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<strong>Invest in the network.</strong> Startups like Oakland-based <a href="https://www.mycnote.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">CNote</a> are working to channel capital to underserved micro and small businesses through a vast network of Black-owned banks, minority credit unions and community development financial institutions that have direct access to many local communities. However, these market innovators are hampered by complex governance requirements that Fortune 200 companies have to put in place before they will do business. We need to make it easier for new players like CNote to pass procurement hurdles and get into the pipeline so they can grow. By helping them on the back end, it opens them up to partnering with large corporates from all across the country.
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<strong>Open up access to markets.</strong> For those Black-owned businesses that do secure a first round of funding, their growth trajectory often slows when it comes to entering new markets. A startup's ability to scale increases exponentially when larger companies with trusted relationships not only make introductions to its partners but also offer the startup's services as part of a proposed solution to customers. This is an approach that has helped <a href="https://mocafi.com/about/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">MoCaFi</a>, a New York-based, Black-owned startup that offers banking services to lower- and moderate-income communities, to start working with local city leaders in new markets. This work can be mutually beneficial for corporations: The ability to deliver effective support to underserved communities increases when the right partners with the right solutions are brought to the table.
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<strong>Digitizing access to capital.</strong> Black entrepreneurs are being denied or given smaller bank loans nearly <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2017-september-availability-of-credit-to-small-businesses.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">twice the rate of</a> their white peers — 54% compared to 30%, respectively. Microfinance institutions and CDFIs have stepped in to fill this void, supporting applications for those previously denied loans. However, the demand exceeds the resources and tools available, and getting funds to those who need it urgently can be challenging. New digital tools can be transformative in this situation if we could accelerate access for these organizations. Many rely on slow paper-based processes, but through the digitization of both applications and distribution of loans, CDFIs like the <a href="https://crfusa.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Community Reinvestment Fund</a> and micro-finance institutions like <a href="https://www.grameenamerica.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Grameen America</a> have been able to process requests faster, more securely and for more businesses, throughout the pandemic.
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<strong>Going all in. </strong>Finally, one of the most important lessons we've learned is that the programs and partnerships used to tackle these issues can't be just for a moment in time or a single intervention. For maximum impact, companies need to be all in with the full breadth of their assets — funding, product pilots, supplier practices, consulting services, data insights — as this is how to drive a catalytic impact and create a more sustainable, inclusive digital economy.
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As more businesses, CEOs, corporate treasurers and venture capitalists join in this effort, we can collectively help bridge that wealth and opportunity gap. Startups can't scale up if they aren't given that first chance.
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As we are reminded during this Black History Month, the problems of racial economic disparity have existed for too long, and although the challenge seems daunting, we are confident that with perseverance we can successfully build a more just and equitable economy. Our early progress matters, and we should make every effort to build on the first steps by coming together across sectors and organizations so that amazing ideas like Tanya's are embraced from the outset.
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Michael Froman serves as vice chairman and president, Strategic Growth for Mastercard. He and his team drive inclusive growth efforts and partner across public and private sectors to address major societal and economic issues. From 2013 to 2017, Mike served as the U.S. trade representative, President Barack Obama’s principal adviser and negotiator on international trade and investment issues. He is a distinguished fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the board of directors of The Walt Disney Company.
Sponsored Content
Building better relationships in the age of all-remote work
How Stripe, Xero and ModSquad work with external partners and customers in Slack channels to build stronger, lasting relationships.
Image: Original by Damian Zaleski
February 21, 2021
February 8, 2021
Every business leader knows you can learn the most about your customers and partners by meeting them face-to-face. But in the wake of Covid-19, the kinds of conversations that were taking place over coffee, meals and in company halls are now relegated to video conferences—which can be less effective for nurturing relationships—and email.
Email inboxes, with hard-to-search threads and siloed messages, not only slow down communication but are also an easy target for scammers. Earlier this year, Google reported more than 18 million daily malware and phishing emails related to Covid-19 scams in just one week and more than 240 million daily spam messages.
<p>To keep the lines of communication wide open in this new reality, organizations are adopting new cloud solutions at a rate CIOs expected to see years from now. In fact, 79% of CIOs agree that the pandemic will force their organizations to digitally transform faster than planned, according to <a href="https://slack.com/blog/transformation/people-partners-systems-slack" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">J.P. Morgan</a>. </p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="1">
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</div></p><p>But executive leaders know it takes more than just adopting a communication platform or software bundle to build relationships remotely. You have to find the <em>right</em> solution that meets both your internal and external collaboration needs. That's why competitive businesses today are turning to Slack, the <a href="https://slack.com/features/channels" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">channel-based messaging platform, </a>to close communication gaps with partners and customers in the age of remote work. Companies can securely collaborate with external parties using <a href="https://slack.com/help/articles/360017938993-What-is-a-channel" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Slack channels</a>, a single place to share files and messages, in the same <a href="https://slack.com/resources/using-slack/setting-up-a-shared-channel" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Slack workspace</a> through <a href="http://slack.com/connect" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Slack Connect</a>.</p><p>With Slack Connect, organizations can build stronger customer and partner relationships through real-time communication. And unlike email—which leaves users open to the risk of spam and phishing—companies and external parties receive communications only from <a href="https://slackhq.com/introducing-new-layers-of-enterprise-grade-security" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">verified members in Slack channels</a>. Plus, Slack workspace administrators can maintain control over data and monitor external access. </p><p>Here's a closer look at how teams at Stripe, Xero and ModSquad are using Slack Connect to engage customers, prospects and partners in real-time and close deals faster. </p><h4>Stripe: Expediting sales deals while building lasting relationships with customers</h4><p><a href="https://stripe.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Stripe</a> is an online payment provider with a mission to support e-commerce. The Stripe sales team works with early-stage startups all the way through global Fortune 500 companies, and uses Slack Connect to engage with customers, keep communication organized and teams in sync, and jump on sales opportunities.</p><p>Jeanne DeWitt Grosser, head of Americas revenue and growth at Stripe, says communicating with prospective customers in Slack has been instrumental in maintaining engagement and closing deals.</p><p class="pull-quote">"Historically, the gold standard of a deep relationship in sales was getting the person on text," says DeWitt Grosser. "Now the gold standard is getting them into a Slack channel."</p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="2">
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</div></p><p>Usually at the beginning of a sale, DeWitt Grosser explains, reps used to double down on communication using the "law of 2x." Essentially, you start with a meeting and then follow up a week later. But this strategy no longer makes the cut: A lot could change in a week, and Slack is more in line with the tempo of the digital workplace. </p><p>"In Slack channels, the dialogue with the prospect happens in real time, as opposed to the next time you align your schedules," DeWitt Grosser says. "This kind of personal, persistent connection grows customer loyalty and retention."</p><p>Often sales reps have to communicate with a variety of departments to seal the deal. Instead of emailing them separately and creating silos, Stripe's account executives and solution architects set up a Slack channel with key customer stakeholders, like developers, the head of payments and a finance representative. </p><p>"When you need to move quickly, email is not the right format: It's more formal and responses take longer," says James Dyett, Stripe's head of global product sales and payments optimizations. "Slack has super powers. It's a much better experience." </p><h4>Xero: Working with external partners like they're on the same team</h4><p>If the pandemic has taught us one thing, it's that relationships matter. Whether it's launching a marketing campaign with a partner or hiring contractors to complete a specific project, we can't—and shouldn't—try to do everything ourselves. <br><br>When it comes to nurturing partnerships in the midst of the pandemic, <a href="https://www.xero.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Xero</a>, a cloud-based accounting software company, affirms that working in Slack Connect has been a game changer. Justine Wallendorf, New Zealand partner marketing manager at Xero, says Slack Connect helped her team launch a joint online marketing campaign with partners, <a href="https://www.figured.com/en-us/figured-xero" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Figured</a> and <a href="http://paysauce" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Paysauce</a>. </p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="3">
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</div></p><p>The three companies were offering a complete software solution for farmers looking to manage their business digitally. By coming together in one Slack channel, #xero-partners, the sales and marketing teams across all three businesses could connect and ensure alignment on: </p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>Immediate universal access to all campaign details</li><li>Consistent messaging across sales enablement deliverables, such as one pagers and slide decks</li><li>Quick feedback and turnaround times for deliverables</li><li>Clear leadership signoffs</li></ul><p class="pull-quote">"Working in Slack Connect guaranteed that everyone was beating the same drum and speaking the same language, positioning our partnership as best as possible in the market," Wallendorf says.</p><h4>ModSquad: Winning customer loyalty with exceptional customer support</h4><p>With so much uncertainty in the world, efficient and reliable customer support is akin to a safe harbor in a storm. That's why Slack customer, <a href="https://modsquad.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ModSquad</a> has its support teams troubleshoot customer issues in real time with Slack Connect.</p><p>As a customer experience outsourcer, ModSquad knows good customer service. Each day, ModSquad's global crew of experts—the Mods—help their customers engage with their audiences online through customer support, content moderation, community management and social media. </p><p>ModSquad works with its clients in Slack Connect to set up service level agreements and incorporate support dashboards. With the <a href="https://slack.com/apps/A0108APQFQC-geckoboard" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Geckoboard Slack integration</a>, ModSquad monitors clients' incoming calls and chats—without ever leaving Slack. Whenever the team sees an uptick in activity or service impacting issues, they can quickly alert clients and internal teams for quick resolution. The team also relies on a <a href="https://slack.com/apps/A9WFQ3M0B-zendesk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Zendesk Slack integration</a> to track service desk tickets, troubleshoot and resolve issues.</p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="4">
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</div></p><p>According to Steve Henry, senior vice president, client services at ModSquad, Slack channels also help build a culture of transparent communication and trust with clients.</p><p>"Establishing trust with our clients is very important, and Slack provides a crucial component for all of our efforts" Henry says. "With Slack, we can provide world-class support solutions and improvements for our clients, driving efficiencies while growing their business in the process."</p><h4>In an all-remote world, Slack Connect builds strong partnerships</h4><p>Slack Connect is available for <a href="https://slack.com/pricing/paid-vs-free" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">all paid plans</a>. If you're already a customer but new to Slack Connect, feel free to <a href="http://slack.com/contact" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reach out</a> or learn more on <a href="https://slack.com/resources/using-slack/setting-up-a-shared-channel" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">how to get started</a>. And if you want to see how others are using Slack Connect to work with external partners, check out a few of our recent <a href="https://slack.com/blog/collections/slack-connect-shared-channels-shared-success" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">customer stories</a>. </p>
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Everything you need to know about the Coinbase direct listing
Coinbase's IPO valuation could be the largest by a U.S. tech company since Facebook went public.
Coinbase will go public on Feb. 25.
Image: Chesnot/Getty Images
February 25, 2021
Hirsh Chitkara (@ChitkaraHirsh) is a researcher at Protocol, based out of New York City. Before joining Protocol, he worked for Business Insider Intelligence, where he wrote about Big Tech, telecoms, workplace privacy, smart cities, and geopolitics. He also worked on the Strategy & Analytics team at the Cleveland Indians.
Jane Seidel is Protocol's social media manager. She was previously a platform producer at The Wall Street Journal, creating mobile content and crafting alert strategy. Prior to that, she worked in audience development at WSJ and on digital editorial at NBC Universal. She lives in Brooklyn.
February 25, 2021
Coinbase, the cryptocurrency exchange, filed its S-1 on Feb. 25 to go public via direct listing on Nasdaq. In the lead-up to the IPO, Coinbase shares traded on the Nasdaq Private Markets at $373, yielding a company valuation of over $100 billion, per Axios. If share prices remain at or above these levels, Coinbase's IPO valuation could be the largest by a U.S. tech company since Facebook went public in 2012. The company hasn't yet set a date for its trading debut.
Depending on who you ask, the Coinbase IPO could be the latest symptom of a major financial bubble or a significant milestone in the restructuring of the global financial system. Coinbase's mission is to "create an open financial system to the world." It believes the prevailing system of global finance, with the U.S. dollar serving as the global reserve currency, is outdated and inefficient. This mission pits the interests of Coinbase squarely against many of the world's most powerful nations, making regulation a grave and — if cryptos continue gaining momentum — probable risk.
What does Coinbase do?
<p>If you want to buy Bitcoin or Ethereum or other crypto, you can begin the costly, labor-intensive and extremely technical process of mining. Or you can turn to a crypto exchange like Coinbase, which allows retail buyers and sellers to meet in the middle.</p><p>Coinbase also believes today's financial system relies on too many intermediaries (banks, brokers, clearinghouses, payment processors, exchanges, etc.), and that relying on this web limits access, efficiency and costs for users. The internet transformed the way we communicate and live, and Coinbase believes that the financial system has hardly been affected in the same way. By enabling anyone with an internet connection — and a bank account, with funds to invest — to easily invest in crypto assets, Coinbase aims to "democratize" access to the crypto economy. </p><p>The company isn't vastly unlike other cryptocurrency exchanges, which have come and gone since crypto trading hit the zeitgeist in 2017. General finance apps have jumped into crypto as of late, including Robinhood and Square, and crypto-specific competitors include Gemini, Kraken and Binance. Coinbase has stuck around largely because of its efficiency, but also by keeping users' personal data secure. "From the early days, we decided to focus on compliance, reaching out to regulators proactively to be an educational resource," CEO Brian Armstrong writes in the S-1. "We invested heavily in cybersecurity, built novel key storage mechanisms, and obtained a cybercrime insurance policy." </p><p>The company's exchange service is its main offering, but it also has a few other lines of business. <a href="https://commerce.coinbase.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Coinbase commerce</a> provides online retailers with software that lets them accept crypto payments (like PayPal, but for crypto). <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/card" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Coinbase Card</a> is in the early stages, giving users a physical Visa debit card and accompanying app. Coinbase even offers its own cryptocurrency, <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/usdc" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">USD Coin</a>, built on Ethereum and tied to the U.S. dollar, so the price remains stable. </p><p>At the end of 2020, the company had 2.8 million monthly active users and 43 million verified users (about 6.5% of users are active, monthly). </p>Coinbase's financials
<p>Coinbase had a stellar 2020. It recorded $1.1 billion in revenue for the year, up 136% from the $483 million in revenue from 2019. This increase in revenue tracks closely with the 142% increase in trading volume between 2019 and 2020.</p><p>Coinbase derives almost all of its net revenue (96% in 2020) from transaction fees, which have been correlated with fluctuations in the value of cryptocurrencies. The rise in institutional trading volume has been a major source in revenue growth for Coinbase over the course of 2020. For instance, in Q1 2020, institutional trading volume rose to 6x the volume of Q1 2019. And even over the course of the year, institutional trading volume went from $18 billion in Q1 2020 to $57 billion in Q4 2020. Retail trading volume went from $12 billion to $32 billion in that same timeframe. </p><p>Bitcoin accounted for approximately 41% of trading volume on Coinbase in 2020, followed by Ethereum (15%) and other crypto assets (44%). </p><p>Coinbase posted a net income of $322 million in 2020, which is pretty incredible for a company that says it's choosing "to prioritize growth because we believe that global scale is central to achieving our mission and the potential of our business model." The biggest expenses in 2020 were "general and administrative," which represented 22% of total revenue, and "technology and development," which represented 21% of total revenue. In 2019, Coinbase reported a net loss of $31 million. </p>What could go wrong?
<p>The short answer: a lot.</p><p>Coinbase is driven by a techno-utopian/libertarian mission, and its long-term success is predicated on overhauling global power structures. This comes with a long list of risk factors, but some of the most significant include: regulation by a cohort of nations to protect the central banking system, loss of public confidence in cryptocurrencies and revenue loss that would come with greater stability in cryptocurrency prices. </p><p>"If the world ran on a common set of standards, that could not be manipulated by any company or country, the world would be a more fair and free place, and human progress would accelerate," Armstrong wrote in the S-1's introduction. </p><p>There's a lot to unpack here, but let's start with the bit about financial standards that "could not be manipulated by any company or country." This vision would mean the U.S. dollar loses its status as the dominant global reserve currency, <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/bretton-woods-created#:~:text=The%20Bretton%20Woods%20system%20was,gold%20at%20the%20official%20price." target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a system established</a> at Bretton Woods following World War II. It would render The Federal Reserve — with its fiscal toolkit intended to provide economic stability — obsolete. With cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, there are a finite number of tokens, so quantitative easing isn't possible. </p><p>It isn't in the interest of many nations, particularly the U.S., to give up central banking control due to cryptocurrencies becoming the global reserve currency. </p><ul><li>Coinbase writes that new regulations and laws "may adversely impact the development of the crypto economy as a whole and our legal and regulatory status in particular by changing how we operate our business, how our products and services are regulated, and what products or services we and our competitors can offer, requiring changes to our compliance and risk mitigation measures, imposing new licensing requirements, or imposing a total ban on certain crypto asset transactions, as has occurred in certain jurisdictions in the past."</li><li>It also details how loss of institutional support could impact its business: "We may face difficulty establishing or maintaining banking relationships due to our banking partners' policies and some prior bank partners have terminated their relationship with Coinbase or have limited access to bank services. … In addition, financial institutions in the United States and globally may, as a result of the myriad of regulations or the risks of crypto assets generally, decide to not provide account, custody, or other financial services to us or the cryptoeconomy generally."</li></ul><p>This regulatory uncertainty hinders institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. </p><ul><li>For instance, in January, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates <a href="https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/our-thoughts-on-bitcoin" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wrote</a>: "For now, though, we do not see it as a viable storehold of wealth for large institutional investors, thanks mainly to a high degree of volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and operational constraints. Rather, we see it as more like buying an option on potential 'digital gold' — it has a wide cone of outcomes, with one path leading to it becoming a true institutionally accepted alternative storehold of wealth."</li></ul><p>Now let's tackle the first part of Armstrong's statement about a world that runs "on a common set of standards." For Coinbase to succeed, it needs cryptocurrencies to remain valuable and worth transacting.</p><ul><li>"The development of new technologies for mining, such as improved application-specific integrated circuits (commonly referred to as ASICs), or changes in industry patterns, such as the consolidation of mining power in a small number of large mining farms, could reduce the security of blockchain networks, lead to increased liquid supply of crypto assets, and reduce a crypto's price and attractiveness," Coinbase writes.</li><li>Another potential risk factor comes with "security issues, bugs, and software errors" of crypto assets that "could adversely affect its price, security, liquidity, and adoption."</li></ul><p>Finally, there's a contradiction within Coinbase's current business model that bears mentioning: Coinbase derives most of its revenue from transaction fees, which are highly correlated with fluctuations in the value of cryptos. The contradiction lies in the fact that cryptocurrency price volatility is seen as one of the primary barriers in something like Bitcoin realizing its potential as an exchange currency rather than an asset class. </p><p>Coinbase believes this isn't actually an issue, since the dynamics will change over the long term. The company writes: </p><ul><li>"Over the long term, we expect further diversification of market participants, to add support for more crypto assets, and for crypto asset use cases to expand. We believe these factors will contribute to diversification in the composition of our Trading Volume and reduce the correlation to both Bitcoin price and Crypto Asset Volatility, subsequently leading to lower volatility in transaction revenues. Further, we expect that diversifying our sources of revenue towards subscription and services revenue will contribute to less fluctuation in our results from operations."</li></ul>Who gets rich?
<p>Coinbase has divided its shares into Class A and Class B, with Class B receiving 20 votes per share and Class A receiving only one. Class B shareholders are also allowed to convert their shares to Class A at any time.</p><p>This setup makes it difficult to say precisely which entities will own Coinbase when it makes its trading debut. As of Jan. 31, 2021, some of Coinbase's largest institutional shareholders included Andreessen Horowitz, Tiger Global, Ribbit Capital, Union Square Ventures and Paradigm. Some of the largest individual shareholders included Frederick Ernest Ehrsam III (the co-founder of Coinbase), Armstrong and CPO Surojit Chatterjee.</p>What people are saying
<ul><li><strong>"The @coinbase<a href="https://twitter.com/coinbase" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> </a>Direct Listing will either confirm direct listings as a reasonable on-ramp for companies or kill it all together by making retail the true bag holders. If institutional investors use this period to manipulate the stock from a $54B valuation on Jan29 to $100B now... And then sell to retail at $100B or greater, it will be the ultimate form of stock manipulation. If the stock snaps back at a much lower valuation, each private txn preceding the DL seems manipulative. Good luck to all the players...I'm sitting out. The process stinks."</strong> —Chamath Palihapitiya <a href="https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1364960892958433285" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">on Twitter.</a></li><li><a href="https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1364960892958433285" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"></a><strong>"Given the Crypto Cycle, I expect Coinbase IPO to be very successful and price to pump hard. A NYSE 'exchange' security trading >$100B should help drive up Crypto Exchange tokens. I can see a bull market narrative where something like UNISWAP is compared to Coinbase in cap."</strong> — Bob Loukas <a href="https://twitter.com/BobLoukas/status/1364974896493826054" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">on Twitter</a>.</li></ul>
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Hirsh Chitkara (@ChitkaraHirsh) is a researcher at Protocol, based out of New York City. Before joining Protocol, he worked for Business Insider Intelligence, where he wrote about Big Tech, telecoms, workplace privacy, smart cities, and geopolitics. He also worked on the Strategy & Analytics team at the Cleveland Indians.
Transforming 2021
Blockchain, QR codes and your phone: the race to build vaccine passports
Digital verification systems could give people the freedom to work and travel. Here's how they could actually happen.
One day, you might not need to carry that physical passport around, either.
Photo: CommonPass
February 23, 2021
Mike Murphy ( @mcwm) is the director of special projects at Protocol, focusing on the industries being rapidly upended by technology and the companies disrupting incumbents. Previously, Mike was the technology editor at Quartz, where he frequently wrote on robotics, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics.
February 23, 2021
There will come a time, hopefully in the near future, when you'll feel comfortable getting on a plane again. You might even stop at the lounge at the airport, head to the regional office when you land and maybe even see a concert that evening. This seemingly distant reality will depend upon vaccine rollouts continuing on schedule, an open-sourced digital verification system and, amazingly, the blockchain.
Several countries around the world have begun to prepare for what comes after vaccinations. Swaths of the population will be vaccinated before others, but that hasn't stopped industries decimated by the pandemic from pioneering ways to get some people back to work and play. One of the most promising efforts is the idea of a "vaccine passport," which would allow individuals to show proof that they've been vaccinated against COVID-19 in a way that could be verified by businesses to allow them to travel, work or relax in public without a great fear of spreading the virus.
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</div></p><p>But building a system that everyone agrees with — and can access — is no small task. There are several companies working on competing projects to verify vaccinations. But beyond that, there are more than a few hurdles that could prevent vaccine passports from succeeding, from antiquated medical records systems to interoperability issues and privacy concerns. Here's how they could actually succeed. </p><h3>Competing projects, similar standards</h3><p>Pretty much since the first blockchain white paper, people have been looking for perfect examples of where a distributed, immutable ledger could be valuable. There's obviously the push to use it for currencies, and companies have tried to use it for things like tracking <a href="https://www.protocol.com/ibm-blockchain-supply-produce-coffee" target="_self">food production</a> and <a href="https://www.govtech.com/products/Blockchain-Voting-Debate-Heats-Up-After-Historic-Election.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">voting</a>, but there are few use cases that have truly taken off, at least so far. "We've been working on this since 2014; we never thought that health care would be the kind of the use case that we take this mainstream," Jamie Smith, the senior director of business development at Evernym, a company focused on using the blockchain as a basis for verifying identities, told Protocol. </p><p>Smith said Evernym had been discussing its concepts with automakers, retailers, telcos, governments, loyalty companies and banks prior to the pandemic. One of those companies was IAG, the airline group that owns British Airways, which had been interested in the idea of contactless travel based on a single identity credential that follows you from the airport check-in to your gate. With the pandemic, that morphed into thinking about ways to verify that passengers have had negative COVID tests, and eventually, that they've received a vaccine. "From our perspective, it was a really easy lift to see," Smith said. "We're doing contactless travel, and we just added verifiable credentials for test results."</p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="2">
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</div></p><p>It's a similar genesis for IBM's Digital Health Pass initiative, which leader Eric Piscini said started about two years ago as a way to store people's entire health records in a safe, accessible platform. It also relies on the blockchain for its immutable record of proof, and both Evernym and IBM are part of an open-standards group called the Good Health Pass Collaborative, which aims to bring private credentialed vaccine records to business and people around the world. Companies are working on their own implementations of the standards, but Evernym's Smith said the data is meant to be portable from one passport to another. </p><p>Most of the companies working on passports say their systems are private by design, especially given that they're mainly working off the same open standards. In most cases, the health information only ever remains on a user's phone, but where it asks to verify that the user's information meets a system's standards — such as whether this person has had two COVID vaccines and should be allowed into an office — that information is recorded on a blockchain. "You can, using blockchain technologies, verify that someone has been tested recently, without having access to the underlying data," Piscini said. "I don't know any other technology where you can do that."</p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="3">
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</div></p><p>Similarly, the nonprofit Commons Project's CommonPass, backed by the likes of Oracle, Microsoft and Salesforce, started out as a project to bring an analog to Apple Health for Android. JP Pollak, a senior researcher at Cornell and founder of the Commons Project, first launched CommonHealth to bring the sort of data and insights that Apple Health offers to iPhone owners to Android users. Last summer, the group started building an app that could take health data and privately share it with others — in that case, it was to help truckers stuck at the borders in <a href="https://www.newtimes.co.rw/opinions/digital-technology-re-opening-africa" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">East African countries</a> who couldn't easily prove they'd taken COVID tests. This morphed into vaccine credentialing, with the group now working to pull together the various data streams needed to get a project like this off the ground. </p><p>"Health care institutions, EMR vendors, retail pharmacies, state vaccine registries, all issuing people a digital verifiable credential of their vaccination record that they could then use in the app of their choice, to be able to get access to various kinds of services," Pollak said. CommonPass is also working with the Mayo Clinic, as well as Epic Systems and Cerner, two of the largest EMR vendors. </p><h3>Something for everyone </h3><p>With so many competing efforts to become the world's digital vaccine passport, it might seem that the country is heading for some sort of VHS versus Betamax format war for proving everyone has had COVID vaccines. But given that so many of the efforts are using the same standards, and in many cases, looking to embed their tech in someone else's app rather than their own, the race might be less about the best tech winning, and more about various approaches working in different situations. </p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="4">
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</div></p><p>"The intent is not to be the only company; we don't want to be the proprietary platform that everybody has to use because they have no choice," IBM's Piscini said. "That's not who we are right now: That's the IBM from 30 years ago, not the IBM of today."</p><p>For IBM, though, the selling point is that the company already works with so many other massive companies. Why look elsewhere for a vaccine passport solution if your airline booking system is already powered by IBM? "We believe our network is going to be more valuable than any other because of our scale and our ability to integrate the platform with CRM systems, building systems or stadium systems — we can do that every day," Piscini said.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY2NTc3NS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMTM1MjYyM30._ykxxCyx3_wDbZrYgCcmK0QT2Ue1tZFdP5pf60kOmPU/img.jpg?width=980" id="c81c9" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3967636652192acfdaad341861263bc8" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image">
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">IATA's digital passport app.</small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">Photo: IATA</small></p><p>For other companies, it's about securing new partnerships with major players in the hopes of finding that scale. Evernym, for example, is working with International Air Transport Association, the airline industry's trade association, on an air travel-specific app called Travel Pass. IATA is working with airlines and local governments to ensure it has the latest requirements to feed the app's rules engine. "It will say, 'Hey, you're flying JFK to Heathrow, you need a PCR test 48 hours in advance before you can land,'" Evernym's Smith said. "And of course, those policy changes are changing every day." Qatar, Emirates and Etihad Airways are all <a href="https://simpleflying.com/qatar-iata-travel-pass-launch/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">expected</a> to start trialing the app in the next few weeks.<br></p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="5">
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</div></p><p>In other instances, the technology will live inside other companies' existing apps; why make someone download yet another app and add another hurdle to compliance? Instead, the experience will be rather like adding a loyalty account or TSA PreCheck number when booking a flight. Airlines and other venues restricting access will require uploading negative test results or vaccine records using one of these services. "You're going to be using the United or the Delta app, and they'll be using our solution or somebody else's, but you will do it via their app," IATA's Travel Pass lead, Alan Murray Hayden, told Protocol.</p><p>The World Health Organization is also working on its own offering, and recently convened the <a href="https://www.who.int/groups/smart-vaccination-certificate-working-group" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Smart Vaccination Certificate Working Group</a>. It's built upon the WHO's nearly century-old notion of the "yellow card" vaccination record, which first was used to document that travelers had been inoculated against diseases such as cholera and yellow fever. Evernym Chief Trust Officer Drummond Reed is part of the working group; he said there should be more to share in the coming months. </p><h3>What could go wrong?</h3><p>It's entirely possible that as more people start to get vaccinated, vaccine passports start to become the norm. You walk to work — still masked, of course — scan a QR code reader in the lobby, and are let in. You go out for lunch, and your loyalty card app has a discount for in-store shoppers verifying they're vaccinated. Your concert ticket is also tied to health pass information that you shared earlier in the day with Ticketmaster. But there are more than a few hurdles ahead of the companies rushing to turn these concepts into realities. </p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="6">
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</div></p><p>First off, there's the … reality … of the real world that any digital system has to contend with. For anyone without access to the internet, digital vaccine credentials will prove difficult to acquire, though all the companies Protocol spoke with said they would offer a paper-based QR code for people who don't have smartphones. But there's also the issue of having to corral so many different stakeholders into one system, especially when some health care providers are still reliant on antiquated database systems or <a href="https://www.protocol.com/manuals/health-care-revolution/electronic-health-records-after-coronavirus" target="_self">even paper records</a>. "The amount of inefficiency in the system is tremendous," IBM's Piscini said. </p><p>But in the U.S. at least, all vaccinators are required to report COVID-19 vaccines to their state. Piscini said that even for people who just received a paper copy of their vaccine records, systems like IBM's can likely link up to the state's immunization registry and allow people to import records to a vaccine passport.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
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<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">How CommonPass's app shows your records. </small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">Image: CommonPass</small></p><p>And states are willing to help out, Pollak said, adding that CommonPass has started working with Hawaii to roll out its offering for would-be tourists. "We're seeing a lot of state governments stepping up and doing a really good job with this," Pollak said. "It would be surprising if there wasn't a coordinated federal effort very soon." That being said, while <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/iceland-covid-passports-canada-1.5904828" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">many countries around</a> the world are committing to working on vaccine passports, getting a straight answer out of the U.S. government on what it's doing has proven difficult. The State Department, which maintains America's traditional, analogue passports, referred me to Homeland Security, which referred me to the White House. The acting director and chief of staff of the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy, Kei Koizumi, told Protocol that "OSTP can't discuss projects we are working on before they are publicly announced."</p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="7">
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</div></p><p>But even with systems in place at a federal level, there's still a fair amount of education that needs to happen before people will trust systems like these. "There's a substantial gap in understanding and knowledge of how these systems work, and people's views, in terms of who should get access to which data," Pollak said. </p><p>"We assume there's a Facebook Borg in the sky, monitoring every interaction," Smith said. "The emergence of verifiable credentials breaks down that mental model, where actually it becomes more like decentralized bits of paper that I can carry around, and no one's to know that I've been sharing this information."</p><p>"Our belief is that if you do the right thing, from a platform point of view, protecting your privacy, and giving you control and access to the platform to everybody who wants to use it," Piscini said. "I think those are very basic things that allow the core of the platform that we build to generate adoption by the individuals."</p><p><div class="ad-tag"><div class="ad-place-holder" data-pos="8">
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</div></p><p>Even with a system that works, there may still be holdouts to this potential new normal. "Some people are saying, 'I will never get vaccinated,'" Piscini said, "and I don't know if the airlines are going to say, 'Well, maybe you will never fly again.'"</p>
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Mike Murphy ( @mcwm) is the director of special projects at Protocol, focusing on the industries being rapidly upended by technology and the companies disrupting incumbents. Previously, Mike was the technology editor at Quartz, where he frequently wrote on robotics, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics.
Protocol | China
Everything you need to know about the Jingdong Logistics IPO
JDL wants to ride China's ecommerce wave and become the integrated logistics firm to rule them all.
BEIJING, CHINA - NOVEMBER 11, 2020: A view of the Jingdong logistics centre in southern Beijing, one of the largest in Asia, with its automated sorting equipment capable of processing up to 800,000 packages per day, and customers waiting no longer than a day for their orders to arrive. Jingdong is the leading Chinese e-commerce platform.
Photo: Artyom Ivanov\TASS via Getty Images
February 19, 2021
David Wertime is Protocol's executive director. David is a widely cited China expert with twenty years' experience who has served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in China, founded and sold a media company, and worked in senior positions within multiple newsrooms. He also hosts POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter. After four years working on international deals for top law firms in New York and Hong Kong, David co-founded Tea Leaf Nation, a website that tracked Chinese social media, later selling it to the Washington Post Company. David then served as Senior Editor for China at Foreign Policy magazine, where he launched the first Chinese-language articles in the publication's history. Thereafter, he was Entrepreneur in Residence at the Lenfest Institute for Journalism, which owns the Philadelphia Inquirer. In 2019, David joined Protocol's parent company and in 2020, launched POLITICO's widely-read China Watcher. David is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Research Associate at the University of Pennsylvania's Center for the Study of Contemporary China, a Member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, and a Truman National Security fellow. He lives in San Francisco with his wife Diane and his puppy, Luna.
February 19, 2021
If Chinese ecommerce is a gold rush, Jingdong Logistics wants to sell everyone a pick and shovel.
That's the basic pitch behind an anticipated $5 billion IPO in Hong Kong that could value ecommerce giant JD.com's logistics arm at $40 billion, according to Bloomberg, making it the second most valuable third-party shipping company in China behind SF Express.
<p>Here's everything you need to know about JDL and its market debut.</p>
WHAT DOES JDL DO?
<p>As the name suggests, JDL is the shipping and delivery arm of JD.com, China's second-largest ecommerce company after Alibaba. JD, listed on Nasdaq, is currently valued at over $160 billion.</p><p>JDL is a spin-off that began as JD's in-house logistics department in 2007, with its operations consolidated into a wholly owned subsidiary in 2011. Since 2017, it's made its services available to other companies besides parent JD and is betting that "as supply chain demands become increasingly sophisticated, more companies are expected to outsource their supply chain operations to third parties that can provide comprehensive supply chain solutions and logistics services," according to its <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2021/103201/documents/sehk21021600660.pdf" target="_blank">offering prospectus.</a></p><p>JDL will be JD's third spinoff. JD Health <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/jd-health-hong-kong-ipo-raises-3point5-billion.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">raised $3.5 billion</a> in a Hong Kong IPO in December 2020 and JD Digits, its finance unit, is planning an IPO in Shanghai, although it has been <a href="https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/jdcom-fintech-arm-seeks-usd29-billion-via-star-market-ipo-" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reorganizing itself</a> to avoid running afoul of regulators as Ant Financial did in the run-up to its planned public offering.</p><p>JDL says it has over 800 warehouses and employs over 240,000 workers in delivery, warehouse and customer service roles. Its stated goal: "To become the world's" — not just China's — "most trusted supply chain solutions and logistics services provider." It's already known for its logistics prowess; many items delivered via JD allow buyers to specify the precise hour of doorstep delivery, so investors are unlikely to need a hard sell.</p>WHAT'S NEXT FOR JDL
<p>JDL plans to use the proceeds of the offering to broaden its warehouse network and trick them out with more "smart" tech, strengthen its line-haul network, upgrade its cold-chain network to keep up with online demand for fresh foods and pharmaceuticals and bolster its cross-border network, partly because "demands from Chinese consumers for foreign products continue to remain robust."</p><p>JDL expects Chinese logistics spending to reach nearly $3 trillion by 2025, the highest in the world, partly due to "redundant logistics processes" that the company hopes to streamline. The integrated supply chain logistics market involves everything from express and last-mile delivery, to trucking and warehousing, to add-on services such as home installation and after-sale services, according to JDL. But it thinks that market is "highly fragmented" and sees a chance to become the logistics firm to rule them all.</p><p>Its secret weapon: tech. Its IPO prospectus mentions automated guided vehicles, autonomous mobile robots, sorting robots and self-driving vehicles, among other things, which will deliver "critical improvements in speed, accuracy and productivity in all key logistical operations." This includes a fully unmanned warehouse in Shanghai, already in operation. And the company will be guided by data to "gain a more comprehensive understanding of the sources of inefficiencies."</p>JDL's FINANCIALS
<p>JDL doesn't make a profit, but the trend lines are good. Revenue's rising quickly: It grew 31.6% between 2018 and 2019, from about $5.8 billion to about $7.7 billion. From 2019 to 2020, revenue for the first nine months of the year jumped 43.2%, from about $5.3 billion to about $7.6 billion. Net losses were about $340 million in 2019, and only $1.8 million over the first nine months of 2020.</p><p>The company has previously been criticized by both commentators and JD CEO Richard Liu for bleeding cash. Chinese financial outlet Caixin <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-02-17/jd-logistics-files-prospectus-for-hong-kong-ipo-101663953.html" target="_blank">reported Wednesday</a> that Liu had "[written] in an internal email to [JD's] delivery leg in mid 2019 that the financing could only support JD Logistics' operation for two years if the company kept losing money." JDL's previous CEO, Wang Zhenhui, was ousted in December and replaced by Yu Rui, who had been the head of JD's Human Resources department.</p><p>JDL isn't promising a quick path to profitability, instead focusing on improving its competitive position. "Our costs and expenses will likely increase in the future as we expect to expand our logistics infrastructure, enhance our supply chain capabilities, develop and launch new solutions and service offerings, expand customer base in existing market and penetrate into new markets, and continue to invest and innovate in our technological platform," the prospectus says. "Any of these efforts may incur significant capital investment and operating expenses, and take time to achieve profitability." </p><p>But JDL spent only 2.9% of its revenue on research and development in the first nine months of 2020, down from 4% in 2018, suggesting JDL is far from a pure tech play.</p>WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
<p>A bet on JDL is a bet on China's continued economic growth, growing consumer demand, digitization of commerce and deepening penetration of broadband and mobile internet. If these trends reverse, JDL — and many other Chinese companies, not to mention the global economy — is in trouble.</p><p>JDL also flags its relationship with its parent as a possible concern. JD's the source of most of JDL's revenue – 56.6% in the first nine months of 2020, down from 61.6% in 2019 – and its ties with JD may prevent JDL from doing business with JD's direct competitors. What happens to JD and even CEO Richard Liu (刘强东) reputationally will also affect JDL. (One example: In August 2018, Liu was<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/04/technology/jdcom-richard-liu-arrest-rape.html?module=inline" target="_blank"> arrested</a> on a rape allegation while on a business trip in Minnesota. Prosecutors declined to charge him, and he later<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/13/business/liu-jingyao-interview-richard-liu.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> faced a civil lawsuit</a> in a Minnesota court.)</p><p>Then there's the perpetual risk of intense competition. In the integrated logistics arena, this could come from the industry trend toward consolidation, which could mint new or bigger competitors than currently exist on the landscape. </p>WHO GETS RICH?
<p>Here's what we know from the prospectus:</p><ul><li>Post-IPO, JD will still own a controlling interest in JDL via two subsidiaries, so JD founder and CEO Liu, who ultimately owns more than 76% of JD, has the most to gain. </li><li>Cayman Islands-based Eastar Capital Fund, L.P. invested $360 million in a Series A round and owns 2.9% of outstanding shares.</li><li>Hillhouse Capital invested $360 million in a Series A round via a subsidiary and owns 2.9% of outstanding shares.</li></ul><p>As the Series A<a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/13/jd-coms-logistics-business-raises-2-5b/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> reportedly valued</a> JDL at $13.5 billion, Eastar and Hillhouse stand to roughly triple their money upon the IPO.</p><p>Other investors include entities controlled by Tencent, Sequoia China and China Merchants Bank.</p>WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING
<ul><li><strong></strong><strong>"JD [Logistics] is the only company building an integrated, on-demand, digitized and increasingly autonomous logistics infrastructure at this scale,"</strong> Jeffrey Towson, professor of investment at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management in Beijing,<a href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3122045/jd-logistics-ipo-expands-e-commerce-empire-chinas-largest-retail" target="_blank"> told</a> the South China Morning Post on Thursday.</li><li><strong>"The problem is that JD Logistics is the only one still losing money among the publicly listed express delivery companies," </strong>Wu Lingwei wrote on WeChat account E-Commerce Online on Thursday.</li></ul>
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David Wertime is Protocol's executive director. David is a widely cited China expert with twenty years' experience who has served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in China, founded and sold a media company, and worked in senior positions within multiple newsrooms. He also hosts POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter. After four years working on international deals for top law firms in New York and Hong Kong, David co-founded Tea Leaf Nation, a website that tracked Chinese social media, later selling it to the Washington Post Company. David then served as Senior Editor for China at Foreign Policy magazine, where he launched the first Chinese-language articles in the publication's history. Thereafter, he was Entrepreneur in Residence at the Lenfest Institute for Journalism, which owns the Philadelphia Inquirer. In 2019, David joined Protocol's parent company and in 2020, launched POLITICO's widely-read China Watcher. David is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Research Associate at the University of Pennsylvania's Center for the Study of Contemporary China, a Member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, and a Truman National Security fellow. He lives in San Francisco with his wife Diane and his puppy, Luna.
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